Iziphumo zohlalutyo zibonisa ukuba ukuthembela ekuphuculeni ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla okudityaniswa ne-CCUS kunye ne-NETs yodwa akunakwenzeka ukuba kube yindlela enexabiso eliphantsi le-decarbonization enzulu yamacandelo e-HTA yaseTshayina, ngakumbi amashishini anzima.Ngokukodwa, ukusetyenziswa okubanzi kwe-hydrogen ecocekileyo kumacandelo e-HTA kunokunceda i-China ifezekise iindleko zokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni ngokufanelekileyo xa kuthelekiswa nemeko ngaphandle kokuveliswa kwe-hydrogen ecocekileyo kunye nokusetyenziswa.Iziphumo zibonelela ngesikhokelo esiluqilima sendlela yaseTshayina ye-HTA decarbonization kunye nereferensi exabisekileyo kwamanye amazwe ajongene nemingeni efanayo.
I-Decarbonizing amacandelo amashishini e-HTA nge-hydrogen ecocekileyo
Senza inkqubo ehlanganisiweyo enexabiso eliphantsi lokuphucula iindlela zokungathabathi cala kwekhabhoni e-China ngo-2060. Iimeko ezine zemodeli zichazwe kwiThebhile 1: ishishini njengesiqhelo (BAU), i-China's National Determined Contributions phantsi kwe-Paris Agreement (NDC), i-net- ukukhutshwa kwe-zero kunye ne-no-hydrogen izicelo (ZERO-NH) kunye ne-net-zero emissions nge-hydrogen ecocekileyo (ZERO-H).Amacandelo e-HTA kolu phononongo abandakanya ukuveliswa kwemizi-mveliso yesamente, intsimbi kunye nentsimbi kunye neekhemikhali eziphambili (kubandakanywa i-ammonia, i-soda kunye ne-caustic soda) kunye nothutho olunzima, kubandakanywa iilori kunye nokuthunyelwa kwasekhaya.Iinkcukacha ezipheleleyo zinikiwe kwicandelo leeNdlela kunye namaNqaku oLongezelelweyo 1–5.Ngokumalunga necandelo lentsimbi kunye nentsimbi, esona sabelo siphambili semveliso ekhoyo eTshayina (89.6%) yinkqubo yesithando somlilo esisisiseko se-oksijini, umceli mngeni ophambili we-decarbonization enzulu yoku.
ishishini.Inkqubo yesithando sombane se-arc iquka kuphela i-10.4% yemveliso iyonke e-China ngo-2019, eyi-17.5% ngaphantsi kwesabelo esiphakathi sehlabathi kunye ne-59.3% ngaphantsi kwe-United States18.Sihlalutye iteknoloji yokunciphisa i-steelmaking ye-steelmaking engundoqo ye-60 kwimodeli kwaye yahlula kwiindidi ezintandathu (umzobo 2a): ukuphuculwa kokusebenza kwezinto eziphathekayo, ukusebenza kweteknoloji ephezulu, ukufakwa kombane, i-CCUS, i-hydrogen eluhlaza kunye ne-blue hydrogen (iTheyibhile eyongezelelweyo 1).Ukuthelekisa inkqubo yokulungiswa kweendleko ze-ZERO-H kunye ne-NDC kunye ne-ZERO-NH scenarios ibonisa ukuba ukufakwa kweendlela ezicocekileyo ze-hydrogen ziza kuvelisa ukunciphisa okuphawulekayo kwekhabhoni ngenxa yokuqaliswa kwe-hydrogen-direct reduction of iron (hydrogen-DRI) iinkqubo.Qaphela ukuba i-hydrogen ayinakusebenza nje njengomthombo wamandla kwi-steelmaking kodwa kunye ne-carbon-abating yokunciphisa i-agent kwisiseko esongezelelweyo kwinkqubo ye-Blast Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) kunye ne-100% kwindlela ye-hydrogen-DRI.Ngaphantsi kwe-ZERO-H, isabelo se-BF-BOF siya kuncitshiswa sibe yi-34% kwi-2060, kunye ne-45% yesithando sombane se-arc kunye ne-21% ye-hydrogen-DRI, kunye ne-hydrogen ecocekileyo iya kubonelela nge-29% yemfuno epheleleyo yamandla yokugqibela kwicandelo.Ngexabiso legridi yelanga kunye namandla omoya kulindeleke ukubayehla ukuya kwi-US$38–40MWh−1 ngo-205019, ixabiso lehydrogen eluhlaza
nayo iya kuhla, kwaye indlela ye-100% ye-hydrogen-DRI inokudlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu kunokuba ibisaziwa ngaphambili.Ngokuphathelele kwimveliso yesamente, imodeli iquka iteknoloji yokunciphisa i-47 engundoqo kuzo zonke iinkqubo zemveliso ezihlelwe kwiindidi ezintandathu (iTheyibhile ezoNgezelelweyo 2 kunye ne-3): ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla, ezinye izibaso, ukunciphisa umlinganiselo we-clinker-to-cement, i-CCUS, i-hydrogen eluhlaza kunye ne-hydrogen eluhlaza. Umzobo 2b).Iziphumo zibonisa ukuba ukuphuculwa kobuchule bokusebenza kwamandla kunokunciphisa kuphela i-8-10% yokukhutshwa kweCO2 iyonke kwicandelo lesamente, kunye nokuhlanganiswa kobushushu obusetyenzisiweyo kunye nobuchwepheshe be-oxy-fuel buya kuba nesiphumo esincinci sokunciphisa (4-8%).Ubuchwephesha bokunciphisa umlinganiselo we-clinker-to-cement bunokuvelisa unciphiso oluphezulu lwekhabhoni (50-70%), ikakhulu kubandakanywa imathiriyeli ekrwada ekrwada yemveliso yeclinker kusetyenziswa i-granulated blast furnace slag, nangona abagxeki bebuza ukuba i-samente enesiphumo iya kugcina iimpawu zayo ezibalulekileyo.Kodwa iziphumo zangoku zibonisa ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-hydrogen kunye ne-CCUS kunokunceda icandelo lesamente ukuba lifezekise ukukhutshwa kwe-CO2 kufutshane ne-zero ngo-2060.
Kwimeko ye-ZERO-H, i-20 iteknoloji ye-hydrogen-based (ngaphandle kwe-47 technologies yokunciphisa) ingena kwimveliso yesamente.Sifumanisa ukuba i-avareji yexabiso le-carbon atement ye-hydrogen technologies iphantsi kune-CCUS eqhelekileyo kunye neendlela zokutshintsha amafutha (Umfanekiso 2b).Ngaphaya koko, i-hydrogen eluhlaza kulindeleke ukuba ingabizi kakhulu kune-hydrogen eluhlaza emva kuka-2030 njengoko kuxoxwe ngokweenkcukacha ngezantsi, malunga ne-US$0.7–US$1.6 kg−1 H2 (ref. 20), izisa unciphiso olubalulekileyo lwe-CO2 kubonelelo lobushushu beshishini ekwenzeni isamente. .Iziphumo zangoku zibonisa ukuba inokunciphisa i-89-95% ye-CO2 ukusuka kwinkqubo yokufudumeza kwishishini laseTshayina (Umfanekiso we-2b, iteknoloji
28–47), engqinelanayo noqikelelo lweBhunga leHydrojeni lwama-84–92% (ref. 21).Ukukhutshwa kwenkqubo ye-Clinker ye-CO2 kufuneka kuncitshiswe yi-CCUS kuzo zombini i-ZERO-H kunye ne-ZERO-NH.Sikwalinganisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-hydrogen njenge-feedstock kwimveliso ye-ammonia, i-methane, i-methanol kunye nezinye iikhemikhali ezidweliswe kwinkcazo yemodeli.Kwimeko ye-ZERO-H, ukuveliswa kwe-ammonia esekelwe kwigesi kunye nokushisa kwe-hydrogen kuya kufumana i-20% yesabelo semveliso yonke kwi-2060 (umzobo 3 kunye neTheyibhile ye-4).Imodeli ibandakanya iintlobo ezine zeteknoloji yokuvelisa i-methanol: amalahle kwi-methanol (CTM), i-coke gas kwi-methanol (CGTM), igesi yendalo kwi-methanol (NTM) kunye ne-CGTM / NTM kunye nokushisa kwe-hydrogen.Kwimeko ye-ZERO-H, i-CGTM / NTM kunye nokushisa kwe-hydrogen inokufikelela kwi-21% yesabelo sokuvelisa kwi-2060 (umzobo 3).Iikhemikhali zikwanamandla okuthwala ihydrogen.Ngesiseko sohlalutyo lwethu oludibeneyo, i-hydrogen inokubandakanya i-17% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla okugqibela ekuboneleleni ukushisa kwishishini lemichiza ngo-2060. Kanye kunye ne-bioenergy (18%) kunye nombane (32%), i-hydrogen inendima enkulu yokudlala. 
decarbonization yoshishino lweekhemikhali ze-HTA yaseTshayina (Umfanekiso 4a).
Isazobe 2 |Ukuthomalalisa okunokwenzeka kwekhabhoni kunye neendleko ezithotyiweyo zobuchwephesha obuphambili bokunciphisa.a, Iindidi ezintandathu ze-60 ezingundoqo zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwe-steelmaking technologies.b, Iindidi ezintandathu zetekhnoloji yokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwesamente engama-47.Ubuchwepheshe zidweliswe ngokwenani, kunye neenkcazo ezihambelanayo ezibandakanyiweyo kwiTheyibhile eyoNgezelelweyo 1 ka a kunye neTheyibhile eyoNgezelelweyo yesi-2 ka b.Amanqanaba okulungela iteknoloji (TRLs) kwithekhinoloji nganye aphawulwe: TRL3, concept;I-TRL4, iprototype encinci;I-TRL5, iprototype enkulu;I-TRL6, iprototype epheleleyo kwisikali;TRL7,umboniso waphambi korhwebo;TRL8, umboniso;I-TRL10, ukwamkelwa kwangethuba;I-TRL11, ikhulile.
Iindlela zokuthutha i-HTA ye-Decarbonizing kunye ne-hydrogen ecocekileyo Ngokwesiseko seziphumo zemodeli, i-hydrogen nayo inamandla amakhulu okunciphisa icandelo lezothutho lase-China, nangona kuya kuthatha ixesha.Ukongeza kwii-LDVs, ezinye iindlela zothutho ezihlalutywayo kumzekelo zibandakanya iibhasi zeenqwelo, iilori (ezilula / ezincinci / eziphakathi / ezinzima), ukuthunyelwa kwasekhaya kunye noololiwe, ukugubungela uninzi lwezothutho eChina.Kwii-LDVs, iimoto zombane zijonge ukuhlala zikhuphisana ngeendleko kwixesha elizayo.Kwi-ZERO-H, ukungena kwe-hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) kwimarike ye-LDV kuya kufikelela kuphela kwi-5% kwi-2060 (umzobo 3).Noko ke, kwiibhasi zeenqwelo-moya, iibhasi ze-HFC ziya kuba neendleko ezikhuphisanayo ngakumbi kunezinye iindlela zombane kwi-2045 kwaye ziquka i-61% yezithuthi ezipheleleyo kwi-2060 kwi-ZERO-H scenario, kunye nombane oseleyo (umzobo 3).Ngokuphathelele iilori, iziphumo ziyahluka ngokwezinga lomthwalo.Ukuqhubela phambili kombane kuya kuqhuba ngaphezu kwesiqingatha seenqwelo zeloli ezikhanyayo ngo-2035 kwi-ZERO-NH.Kodwa kwi-ZERO-H, iilori ze-HFC ezilula kakhulu ziya kukhuphisana ngaphezu kweelori zombane zombane ngo-2035 kwaye ziquka i-53% yemarike ngo-2060. imarike kwi-2060 kwimeko ye-ZERO-H.I-Diesel / i-bio-diesel / i-CNG (i-gesi yendalo ecinezelweyo) ii-HDV (izithuthi ezinzima) ziya kushiya imarike emva kwe-2050 kuzo zombini iimeko ze-ZERO-NH kunye ne-ZERO-H (umzobo 3).Izithuthi ze-HFC zinenzuzo eyongezelelweyo ngaphezu kwezithuthi zombane ekusebenzeni kwabo ngcono kwiimeko ezibandayo, ezibalulekileyo kumantla nasentshona yeChina.Ngaphandle kothutho lwendlela, imodeli ibonisa ukwamkelwa ngokubanzi kweetekhnoloji ze-hydrogen ekuthumeleni kwi-ZERO-H scenario.Ukuthunyelwa kwenqanawa ekhaya eTshayina kunamandla kakhulu kwaye kungumngeni onzima wokuphelisa ikhabhoni.I-hydrogen ecocekileyo, ngakumbi njenge-a
feedstock for ammonia, ibonelela ukhetho ngenqanawa decarbonization.Isisombululo esincinci esincinci kwimeko ye-ZERO-H iphumela kwi-65% yokungena kwe-ammonia-fuelled kunye ne-12% yeenqanawa ze-hydrogen-fuelled kwi-2060 (umzobo 3).Kule meko, i-hydrogen iya kuba ne-avareji ye-56% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla okugqibela kulo lonke icandelo lezothutho kwi-2060. Siphinde senza imodeli yokusetyenziswa kwe-hydrogen kwindawo yokufudumeza indawo yokuhlala (iNqaku elongezelelweyo 6), kodwa ukwamkelwa kwayo akunanto kwaye eli phepha ligxininisa Ukusetyenziswa kwe-hydrogen kumashishini e-HTA kunye nothutho olunzima.Ukugcinwa kweendleko zokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni usebenzisa i-hydrogen ecocekileyo yaseChina ikamva le-carbon-neutral liya kubonakaliswa ngokulawula amandla ahlaziyiweyo, kunye nokukhutshwa kwamalahle kusetyenziso lwawo oluphambili lwamandla (umzobo 4).Amafutha angekho phantsi kwefosili aquka i-88% yomxube wamandla ophambili ngo-2050 kunye ne-93% ngo-2060 phantsi kwe-ZERO-H.Wind kunye ne-solar iya kubonelela ngesiqingatha sokusetyenziswa kwamandla okuqala ngo-2060. Ukusetyenziswa (TFEC) kunokufikelela kwi-13% kwi-2060. Ukuqwalasela ukungafani kwengingqi yezakhono zemveliso kumashishini abalulekileyo ngommandla (Itheyibhile eyoNgezelelweyo ye-7), kukho amaphondo alishumi anezabelo ze-hydrogen ze-TFEC eziphezulu kune-avareji yelizwe, kuquka i-Inner Mongolia, i-Fujian, i-Shandong. kunye ne-Guangdong, iqhutywa zizixhobo zomoya ezityebileyo zelanga kunye nonxweme kunye nolwandle kunye/okanye iimfuno zemizi-mveliso ezininzi ze-hydrogen.Kwimeko ye-ZERO-NH, iindleko zotyalo-mali eziqokelelweyo zokuphumeza ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni ukuya kuthi ga kwi-2060 iya kuba yi-20.63 yeetriliyoni zeedola, okanye i-1.58% yemveliso yasekhaya ehlanganisiweyo (GDP) ye-2020-2060.Umndilili wotyalo-mali olongezelelweyo ngonyaka unokuba malunga ne-US$516 yebhiliyoni ngonyaka.Esi siphumo siyangqinelana neChina ye-US$15 yetriliyoni yokunciphisa isicwangciso ukuya kutsho ku-2050, umndilili wotyalo-mali olutsha lonyaka lwe-US$500 yeebhiliyoni (ref. 22).Nangona kunjalo, ukwazisa ukhetho lwe-hydrogen ecocekileyo kwinkqubo yamandla yaseTshayina kunye nokutya kwemveliso kwi-ZERO-H isiphumo sotyalo-mali olusezantsi kakhulu lwe-US $ 18.91 yetriliyoni ngo-2060 kunye nonyaka.utyalo-mali luya kuncitshiswa lube ngaphantsi kwe-1% ye-GDP ngo-2060 (Fig.4).Ngokuphathelele kumacandelo e-HTA, iindleko zotyalo-mali zonyaka kwezoamacandelo anokuba malunga ne-US $392 yebhiliyoni ngonyaka kwi-ZERO-NHImeko, ehambelanayo nentelekelelo yaMandlaIKhomishini yoTshintsho (i-US$400 yeebhiliyoni) (ref. 23).Nangona kunjalo, ukuba icocekile
I-hydrogen ifakwe kwinkqubo yamandla kunye ne-chemical feedstocks, i-ZERO-H scenario ibonisa ukuba iindleko zonyaka zotyalo-mali kumacandelo e-HTA zingancitshiswa zibe yi-US $ 359 billion, ngokukodwa ngokunciphisa ukuthembela kwi-CCUS okanye i-NETs ebiza kakhulu.Iziphumo zethu zibonisa ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-hydrogen ecocekileyo kunokugcina i-US $ 1.72 yezigidigidi kwiindleko zotyalo-mali kwaye ugweme ukulahlekelwa kwe-0.13% kwi-GDP ehlangeneyo (2020-2060) xa kuthelekiswa nomzila ngaphandle kwe-hydrogen ukuya kwi-2060.
Isazobe 3 |Ukungena kweTekhnoloji kumacandelo e-HTA aqhelekileyo.Iziphumo phantsi kwe-BAU, NDC, ZERO-NH kunye neZERO-H scenarios (2020–2060).Kunyaka ngamnye obalulekileyo, ukungena kwethekhinoloji ethile kumacandelo ahlukeneyo kuboniswa yimivalo enemibala, apho ibha nganye ipesenti yokungena ukuya kwi-100% (yelattice enomthunzi ngokupheleleyo).Itekhnoloji iphinda ihlelwe ngeentlobo ezahlukeneyo (eziboniswe kwiintsomi).CNG, igesi yendalo ecinezelweyo;I-LPG, igesi yepetroleum engamanzi;i-LNG, igesi yendalo engamanzi;w/wo, kunye okanye ngaphandle;I-EAF, i-oven arc yombane;I-NSP, inkqubo entsha yokumiswa kwesifudumezi sokuqala;I-WHR, inkunkuma yokubuyisela ubushushu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-13-2023
